Fantasy Hockey Friday: "We're Going Streaking!"

By John Cullen

As I alluded to last week, this is one of the most difficult times of the year for fantasy players. If you miss the boat on some critical moves right now, you could end up putting some of those categories you’re way behind in out of reach. That said, you pull the trigger too early on some of these slow starters and you could miss the hot streaks that win teams money.

It’s hard to know exactly what to do, and we’re still at the stage in the year where one really hot night for a team can see them jump up 5 to 7 spots in the standings, or worse yet, a really bad night can drop you just as many. It’s hard to deal with those swings, and they’re mostly due to those who are hot right now: and those who are not. So this week, I’d like to take a look at two major streaks running through fantasy leagues right now(and dominating conversation), and offering some advice on where to progress from here. We’re not a month into the season yet, so panic button time is nowhere near, but you never want to miss the boat.

Streak #1: Craig Anderson

Good ol’ Andy is putting together one of the hottest goalie streaks in recent memory, dashing out from Tomas Vokoun’s shadow to an unbelievable start with Colorado, leaving many wondering how it can last, and for how long. My answer: it can’t. A lot of people are left proclaiming Colorado to be the real deal, but history generally dictates that goalies who have stepped out from behind an elite starter to become a starter in their own right struggle, even after a hot start. The reality is that an 82-game season is a very, very long time, particularly for a goalie - and particularly for one who’s been asked to start every one of his team’s games this season so far, (with no end in sight with back-up Peter Budaj out with the H1N1 virus) and especially for one who has played over 40 games only ONCE in his ENTIRE CAREER, and that was in juniors in 2000-01 with the Guelph Storm, where he played 59 games.

One only needs to take a quick look at the last back-up to step out from Vokoun’s shadow to find that the proof is never far. Chris Mason covered for Vokoun in the 2005-06 season after Vokoun suffered a blood clot injury, and Mason played unbelievable, carrying Nashville to a first-place standing in the Central Division before relinquishing the job back to Vokoun. That was enough for the Preds to feel confident trading Vokoun at the trade deadline the following season, handing number one status to Mason. Mason posted very good numbers to start the 2007-08 year, recording 10 wins by mid-November, including a streak of 3 shutouts in 5 games. Many were ready to declare Mason an elite goaltender, and then the intensity of playing night-in and night-out hit. Mason began to struggle mightily and ironically ended up losing his job to back-up Dan Ellis. Mason struggled to a sub-.900 save percentage for the first time in his career, and was traded. He’s since regained his form, but that season was an excellent indicator of just what a full schedule can do to a goaltender. Couple that with Anderson’s defense, featuring a top pairing of two offensive-minded d-men and a couple of veterans, and this is a recipe for eventual struggle.

Advice: sell high now. A goalie’s stock has never been this high and guys will hit the panic button much earlier if their goalies are struggling. Anderson could legitimately fetch a struggling starting ‘tender and a solid roster player at the moment, and that’s a deal I couldn’t pass up.


Streak #2: Anze Kopitar

Kopitar’s average draft position on Yahoo! this season was 86.6, putting him in the 8th-round for a typical 10-team pool, and this is keeping in mind that a lot of leagues draft a week into the season, which would skew Kopitar higher. Consistently held back in LA, Kopitar has always been seen as a risk to own: his plus-minus often wasn’t worth the risk for his inconsistency issues and his overall point totals. This likely led to his low draft position, and is making those who were fortunate enough to draft him look like geniuses. But can he keep it up? To be honest, all signs point to yes. Any time anyone has commented to me over the last few years about how bad L.A. is, my standard response was “well, if they ever get someone to play with Kopitar, they’ll be fine, that kid is the real deal.” Now, I don’t believe I’m an unbelievable clairvoyant (I was in 4 pools this year and didn’t draft Kopes in any of them), but I always knew there was something about that guy, and he’s finally found linemates he can work with.

In his years in L.A., he’s been given talented linemates, but not ones who suit his style. He was usually put with guys who also like to shoot, and it took away from his ability to get quality scoring opportunities, as I don’t know if Kopitar ever felt like the #1 shooter on the lines he played on. And believe me, he is a NUMBER-ONE SHOOTER. The best Kopitar ever plays is for his native Slovenia, where he consistently logs disturbing amounts of ice-time and where you have to feel the dressing room talk contains flashbacks to Bel-Air Academy's Coach Smiley, whose one and only game plan was "pass the ball to Will". He even led Slovenia to their first ever appearance at the World "A" Championships, where Kopitar was lucky enough to play due to L.A. missing the playoffs. The guy thrives on being the top guy, both on his line and on his team, and it's clear he is now that guy for L.A.

While his shots-per-game average has only gone up slightly this year (2.8 from last year to 3), I believe that playing with two guys who would rather do things other than shoot (Smyth driving the net and Williams passing) has allowed Kopitar’s quality scoring chances to increase significantly, and in the games I’ve seen LA play, that has been the case. Playing with guys like Mike Cammalleri (who averaged nearly 4 shots a game playing with Kopitar) and Alexander Frolov (2.7/game) allowed Kopitar time playing with great players, but not complementary ones, especially when compared with Smyth (3 shots/game average in 13 games this season, around 2.5 for his career) and Williams (averaging 2/game for his career). That’s 3 shots less per night coming from Kopitar’s linemates, which means that Anze is the one getting the quality chances for the first time in his career, as a ridiculous 25.6% shooting percentage alludes to. Getting a proper grinder who can also dish the puck was a stroke of genius by Dean Lombardi, and while I don’t see Kopitar leading the league by year’s end, I see no reason why he can’t crack the top 10 or even top 5. LA’s dynamite power-play, QB’ed by Drew Doughty, certainly doesn’t hurt either and that tinted visor and cracked-tooth smile is going to make a lot more highlight reels by year’s end.

Advice: hang onto this stock and hang onto it hard. I'd value Kopitar as a top-3 centre right now behind Crosby and Thornton and a top 10 fantasy player, particularly in pools that value power-play stats.

Overall, remember that streaks can often be just that. As we talked about with the waiver wire last week, streaks can be the difference between a team’s success and failure, and it’s important to remember that individual history, team history, and time of the year all play a huge role. If you’re unsure, do a small amount of research. NHL.com has a ridiculous stats database and there’s absolutely no reason why you can’t put it to good use researching your own players, but also those who may have found themselves in similar situations to your streakers, either hot or cold. Be knowledgeable and give yourself the best chance to win every day.

The Saturday Slate

Your weekly guide to goalie sits and starts. If my “start” goalies record a win and a peripheral statistic of either 2.00 GAA or less, or .920 save % or higher, I take one point. If they record one of the two, I take a half-point. If my “sit” goalies take a loss and post either a 3.00 GAA or higher or a .900 save % or less, I take one point. If they take either one of the two, I take a half. For the year, I have 9 of a possible 12 points, recording at least a half-point in 10 of 12 predictions thus far. In the event of a starting goalie not playing the game, I will assume their backup’s stats.

START

Mike Smith v. New Jersey: I hate to keep picking on New Jersey, but if they want to keep averaging 2.5 goals/game, I’ll have no choice. Tampa remains unbeaten in regulation at home and Smith has posted 2 wins and 2 shootout losses in his 4 games at the Ice Palace, with a very impressive 2.21 GAA and .935 save-percentage alongside.

Ilya Bryzgalov v. Anaheim: Breezy’s been putting up a wall in Glendale, posting unbelievable numbers to start the year. It has to fizzle out sometime, but against an Anaheim team playing a back-to-back and averaging an uncharacteristic 2.5 goals/game, it won’t be this Saturday.

SIT

Jaroslav Halak/Carey Price v. Toronto: You won’t see me recommending goalies to sit against Toronto too often, but this Saturday seems ripe for the picking. Montreal will have played the night before in a different timezone, and coming back home to play the HNIC against their Original 6 rivals should be a recipe for disaster. Despite Toronto lacking a true scorer, they can put the puck in the net, and against the Habs the last few years, 4 or 5 goals sometimes hasn’t even won the game. Either goalie might pick up a W, but the supporting stats won’t be worth it, and I’ll take the half-point all the way to the bank.

Miikka Kiprusoff v. Detroit: Detroit is showing signs of finally putting it together, coming back from 3 down to beat Vancouver and 4 down to earn a point against a hot Edmonton squad. I see this finally translating to a solid win on Saturday night, as Kiprusoff looks to be in fine form from the last two seasons(a lot of ugly wins) and I don’t see it improving against a Detroit team that still carries so many offensive weapons.