Fantasy Hockey Friday: Walking the Waiver Wire

By John Cullen

There probably isn’t a day that goes by where my dad and I don’t talk about fantasy hockey. 4 years ago, I joined my first daily roster update pool. As a kid who could recognize all the NHL teams by logo at age 3(winning my dad some pocket money from his friends on “yeah, right” wagers) and who liked hockey cards more for the statistics on the back than the pictures on the front, fantasy hockey was a logical progression. It became an addiction for me, and as such, began to seep into my every day conversation. A life-time hockey fan, my father’s interest was piqued, and the next year, I started my own pool, and he joined. When he joined, the father-son talks increased. And there's no mistaking, these father-son moments weren’t always darling, and our father-son interactions don’t always conjure images of fishing at some small watering hole when I was young lad. We get along very well, but when it comes to fantasy hockey, they’re usually pretty confrontational, and they almost always center on one thing: free agents.

I have to admit, I generally get to a point where I pity people who are in “select ‘em and forget ‘em” pools. You have a few key injuries and your season is over. You make a risk pick(Michael Nylander, Sergei Kostitsyn, perhaps?) that doesn’t pay off, and your season is over. However, in pools with a waiver wire, these situations are ones that can come with a remedy. Of course, there’s never a cure for bad drafting and a slew of injuries can kill you in a daily update pool as well, but the waiver wire can provide solutions, and in the case of my dad, can win you second in a pool. Making over 125 moves last season, my dad took a horrible draft and turned it into something. And you can too.

This is typically the week where most fantasy managers will lose their patience with their roster and begin to make moves. I often try my best to preach patience, but with some teams having 10 games under their belt, there are trends being set by guys that can’t be ignored. So, if you’re new to the game or a veteran, the waiver wire can be a confusing and troubling place. Many seasons are won and lost on the wire and it is more than simply dropping a guy and picking him up. These moves can impact a team for an entire season. So how do you deal with it?

The first key (and the key to all fantasy hockey, really) is patience. Just because a guy is running extremely hot on the wire or extremely cold on your team is not necessarily a cause for concern. You need to allow situations to play out in both directions. Team play is always a very important thing to consider when you’re making these sorts of decisions. Take Shea Weber for example. His slow start to the season was as much a result of Nashville’s 6-game winless streak and their abysmal 1.5 goals-per-game average as it was of his own play. He was getting buckets of ice time, playing in all situations, but it’s pretty hard to get much happening when your team has scored one goal or less in half of its games. Yahoo! reacts by taking him off their “Can’t Cut” List. ESPN ranks him 25th out of current defenseman based on production for THE REST OF THE YEAR, putting him behind fantasy “legends” Stephane Robidas, Kevin Bieksa, Paul Martin, rookie Victor Hedman, and Pavel Kubina.

So how are you, as the newbie poolie, supposed to react? Unfortunately, people get impatient. They hit the "drop" button a little too fast. Then hey, guess what, Nashville wakes up in a 6-5 win over Ottawa and Weber puts up a line with no surprises: 2 G, 1 A, -1, 2 PIMs, 1 PPP, 1 GWG, 7 SOG, 26:27 TOI. Yes, Nashville won’t light the world on fire this season, but those of you who hit the panic button on Weber must be feeling quite silly now. So my advice? Ride the storm. It’s the same advice I gave with the goalies, and the same advice I give my dad and other poolies who come to me for advice every day. Pay attention to the TEAM dynamics before you make any rash decisions. Slumps happen. They are frustrating to a fantasy team and if they get too long, then moves need to be made, but take a look at the intangibles(is the team slumping? Has your player seen a drop in icetime? Has he been put on a different line? Is he in the coach's doghouse?, etc.) before you make any harsh choices.

That said, don’t be TOO patient. One thing I like to do each year is designate a “waiver wire” spot on my team. This is usually pretty easy, especially if your draft was a particularly deep one: you’ll always have a clunker around. I reserve this spot for whomever is playing hottest on a weekly basis. I may only keep the player for a week, maybe even less time if I really like the match-up, but teams lose out by standing pat week in and week out. While I think an itchy trigger finger can be dangerous, by giving yourself this spot, it eliminates the potential danger of getting too waiver-wire happy, because if the player busts, you were planning on replacing him anyway, or if the guy you dropped catches fire, you were planning on replacing him anyway, so the stress levels go down. As I’ve said before, fantasy seasons are much too long to be stressed out and the more you panic, the less chance you have of winning. Oftentimes the best managers are the ones who make the least moves with the most impact. So give yourself some room to breathe, keep an expendable guy around, and roll with the hot hand when you get a chance. It might be just those sorts of fringe points that win your team a season. Ask my dad, him and his 2nd-place trophy have a lot to say about it.

The Saturday Slate

Your weekly guide to goalie sits and starts. If my “start” goalies record a win and a peripheral statistic of either 2.00 GAA or less, or .920 save % or higher, I take one point. If they record one of the two, I take a half-point. If my “sit” goalies take a loss and post either a 3.00 GAA or higher or a .900 save % or less, I take one point. If they take either one of the two, I take a half. For the year, I have 7 of a possible 8 points, recording at least a half-point in all 8 predictions thus far. In the event of a starting goalie not playing the game, I will assume their backup’s stats.

START

Marc-Andre Fleury v. New Jersey: Fleury’s been the hottest goalie to start the year, and the Devils are only averaging 2.75 goals per game. Simple math dictates this play, especially when you factor in the Penguins are 3-1 at home.

Pascal Leclaire/Brian Elliott v. Boston: I wouldn’t be surprised to see either goalie get the start here, and I don’t think it matters. Boston’s beat up and playing their 3rd game in 4 days, and Ottawa will be looking to bounce back from a tough home loss vs. Nashville.

SIT

Tomas Vokoun @ Philadelphia: The Flyers have been a victim of bizarre NHL scheduling to start the year, having played only 2 games in 12 days. They looked lackluster in both games, and it’s hard to blame them. One of those two games was a lazy loss to these very same Panthers, and with the Flyers finally playing games within 2 nights of one another, I expect them to find their form and exact some revenge against one of the league’s worst defenses.

Chris Mason v. Dallas: Dallas has put up some big offensive numbers this year behind a finally-healthy lineup and the emergence of James Neal and rookie sniper Jamie Benn. Brad Richards returned to the lineup Thursday vs. L.A., posting two assists, and with so many weapons and Mason still looking like he left his game in Europe, it’s tough to find him a good play here.