Fantasy Hockey *Saturday: Boxing Day

By John Cullen

I’ve taken a lot of time in this space to talk about my hatred of what I call “set it and forget it” pools. These are pools often done in offices by people who are otherwise “too busy”(see: not knowledgeable enough) to participate in daily/weekly roster update pools, where the real poolies lie. So oftentimes these pools won’t even have a draft, they won’t meet together at some point during the year to watch a game or three, and most guys won’t even check to see how they’re doing more than once every three or four months. The favorite of the office pool is the “box” pool, where players are divided according to skill into boxes, and you pick one player from each box. Guy with the most points wins. Most box pools will have one “trading day” a year, where you can exchange one or several players for other players within the box, inheriting their points in the process. This is done as a measure to prevent injuries from completely ruining a team, and also to give the teams in the last few places some hope for the new year(even though realistically if you’re not within 30 points of the lead at this point in the season, you’re probably not going to win--sucks but it’s the truth). So today, I’m going to talk about box pool deadline day, the one time a year where you get to manipulate your pool in your favor. I’m not JUST a daily roster player, you know.

There isn’t a whole lot to say about these moves, and most fantasy owners won’t even really care too much, they’ll simply look at which categories they can gain the most points in, and pick those two players. This logic is naturally flawed, and if you don’t take to consider overall output for the season, you’re going to screw yourself and you may end up trading for a player who will fall apart.

Much like when you’re dealing with goalies, trending is the most important thing to look at when you’re trading these players. What I mean to say by that is you need to make sure that the guy you are trading for isn’t simply a hot player, and that his current point total will reflect exactly where he’s going to go for the year. By taking a look into some research and finding out some average point totals for your player over the past few seasons, you’ll give yourself a better understanding of exactly where the player is heading. Some guys have “point ceilings”, or totals where they really can’t achieve too much more over the course of their career. Be aware of these ceilings and make your adjustments accordingly.

The New York Rangers are a prime example of how trending can affect your team negatively. At the beginning of the year in daily update pools, nearly everyone was stumbling over themselves to pick up guys like Ales Kotalik, Michael Del Zotto, Vinny Prospal, etc. The Rangers have been abysmal offensively and in the standings since their initial 7-1 run, and I’ve seen nearly all Rangers get dropped as fast as they were picked up. To pick up a guy because he’s hot in December can crush you, so you need to be sure you’re getting the best value.

As always in box pools, injuries are a huge concern. Many guys will be making a move for Marian Gaborik in their pool, and this is very troubling to me. Unless the guy you have in your box is 20-25 points under Gaborik at this point and heading for a 50-point season, you simply can’t pick up a guy that’s a constant injury worry. Yes, he’s second in the league now, but if he goes down tomorrow and is out for the year, everyone in his box will pass him in points. This goes for every player, of course, but why not stick with a player who has a reputation for durability instead?

And finally, be very wary of exchanging defensemen or goalies. Only the most elite defensemen score over 50 points in a season(last season, only 13 d-men scored 50 or more, with 39 points being enough to get you into the top 30) and the reality is that unless your boxes were made very poorly, the point differential between all the defensive guys in a box might be 10-15 points at the end of the season. Compare that with a forward box where a guy like say, Anze Kopitar, is in with a bunch of chumps based on his last season’s point total, and you could have a point differential between the first and last guy of 40-50 points, which is a ridiculous difference. Sure, Tomas Kaberle might have 15 more points than Chris Pronger right now, but is Kaberle REALLY going to score 70 points this year, and are the Flyers REALLY going to keep being this bad? Not bloody likely in either case.

As for goalies, the same thing applies. Unless your goalie categories are wildly imbalanced or goalie points are applied in silly fashion(1 pt=win, 2 pts=SO is pretty standard), you’re not going to end up with a huge difference between guys and because the goalie stats in these types of pools are geared more towards team quality rather than goalie quality and the boxes usually reflect this, you’re at risk by exchanging goalies unless there’s some major gap in class in the box rankings, and that’s without even considering goalie slumping, which can kill any good box poolie.

So make sure when you head to your trade deadline in the coming weeks that you do with point ceilings, expectations, and team trending in mind, otherwise you could end up wasting your trades on lateral moves and your only chance at gaining any ground in the standings.

The Saturday Slate

Your weekly guide to goalie sits and starts. If my “start” goalies record a win and a peripheral statistic of either 2.00 GAA or less, or .920 save % or higher, I take one point. If they record one of the two, I take a half-point. If my “sit” goalies take a loss and post either a 3.00 GAA or higher or a .900 save % or less, I take one point. If they take either one of the two, I take a half. For the year, I have 18.5 of a possible 32 points, recording at least a half-point in 23 of 32 games thus far. In the event of a starting goalie not playing the game, I will assume their backup’s stats.

Last week: I missed another week, but got back on the board, albeit in small fashion with my only point coming at the hands of Mathieu Garon and the Blue Jackets. Better things ahead in time for Christmas!

START

Ilya Bryzgalov @ Anaheim Both teams will be playing their third game in four nights, but I think that’s more of a problem for the anemic offense of the Ducks, rather than the trap-happy Coyotes. Breezy is putting up career numbers and is making an early bid for a surprise Vezina Trophy nomination. He’s a must-start on any given night, but against the Ducks he has a real shot at a goose-egg.

Brian Elliott v. Minnesota Elliott’s finding his game just in time for Pascal Leclaire’s return and where the job seemed Leclaire’s assuredly only a few weeks ago, Elliott’s put up two donuts in the last 4 games and has won 3 of 4, putting up some very excellent numbers in the process. Mike Brodeur may see his first NHL start here, but I think Cory Clouston will have enough faith in Elliott to roll him on back-to-back nights, and so do I.


SIT

Tomas Vokoun @ Carolina: Carolina’s beginning to find their game again, with Eric Staal back and playing like one of the elite players in the game and their starting goalie Cam Ward back between the pipes. Florida’s been playing some good hockey as of late, but in a B2B situation and against a team that has averaged over 3.0/GPG in their last 10, I like the bench here.

Henrik Lundqvist @ Philadelphia: Case of two teams playing poorly here, and I still feel Philly’s going to find their game under Peter Laviolette, and this afternoon date with the Rangers might just be it. The Rangers will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days against the well-rested Flyers, and I think this is where the Flyers begin their rebound. The King has been known for inconsistency and I think it shows through again here.