Fantasy Hockey Friday: Trading Places

By John Cullen

Being in a pool with your buddies has its many benefits: bragging rights at the end of the season, getting together for a big game or two, draft night, and the ability to see first-hand just how much that egotistical friend of yours ACTUALLY knows about hockey. One of the major downsides to trying to pool with your friends, despite being one of the more fun aspects of pools, is trying to make trades. I’ve been in pools with both random people and my best friends, and it can often be very difficult for anyone to make a trade with a friend, who can prove to be more of a stickler than your average NHL GM. So how do you make trades work? What is the best route to go?

We’re approaching that time of year where teams start to look at their line-up, look at the waiver wire which has now been picked drier than the Christmas bird, and wonder just how they’re going to mount a charge up the standings. What are some things to think about before you wade into the trade market? Trades can be very difficult to pull off because everyone involved in a deal wants to do the best for their team and especially if you’re pooling with your friends, who’d rather be caught dead than offer you any kind of a steal.

The first thing to do when you approach any deal is assess your needs. There’s no sense in making a lateral move because trading is really only in place to improve your squad. Straight elite player-for-elite player deals don’t often have a huge impact on a pool and there really isn’t any point in breaking out the “propose trade” function for those deals unless you’re addressing a positional need. Positional need SHOULD be the number-one reason you make a deal, as poolies will often end up with a glut of good players at one position, especially if they’re new to a pool and didn’t have a draft strategy to cope with the various positions often required by pools. When you sit down to consider a trade, make sure you’re not going to leave yourself in a deep hole at any position either--this is the time of year where people get really smart to all the fantasy resources available to them(like this column) and the waiver wire begins to resemble a graveyard, so giving up your best player at a position you’re shallow at to strengthen another position can be your death knell, as the limited starts you get at each position won’t allow you to maximize your new asset’s potential. For example, in one pool, I have Mike Richards, Joe Thornton, Steve Stamkos, and Derek Roy at centre. It’s definitely a position most people would envy, but the problem is that on nights when I have all 4 playing, Derek Roy--a guy who is a C1 for a lot of fantasy teams--sits on the bench. Making a move that might deplete one position to build another can spell the end.

Another thing to consider is just the plain number of assets you’re getting. Any fantasy owner worth his salt knows that a 3-for-2 deal favors the guy getting 2 players every time. I know what you’re thinking: “wait a minute, the guy getting MORE players loses?! WHAT?!” But in almost every case, the guy getting 3 players has to drop someone. The guy getting 2 players gets a free spot to fill with a guy from the waiver wire, or, if he’s even smarter, times the deal when he has a key player returning from the IR, so it’s almost as though he makes the trade for free. Having Marian Hossa come off my IR in one of my pools actually gave me MORE flexibility for a trade, because I was able to make a 3-for-2 deal and maybe give up a little bit more because I had an elite player coming my way for free. Unless you have a total plug on your roster or you’re getting 3 amazing players, you need to be wary of any deal that comes your way with a lopsided number of players involved.

Finally, propose trades that work for everyone, most especially if you’re pooling with your friends. Sending trade offers that even a monkey with a typewriter wouldn’t accept serves no purpose aside from pissing your fellow poolies off and wasting your time. Guys are not as stupid as you think, and I’ve seen the classic poolie who offers you a different trade every 3-5 days, all of them equally terrible and all of them based off “name value”. If you’re a relatively smart poolie, most of the trades you will make or see in your pool will be considered fair deals. The only time a truly lopsided deal will come through the wire is when one poolie foolishly trades away a sure thing based on a player’s past performance or his name value. Be careful before you ever hit the “accept” button that you’re having a look at how that player is truly performing(we are a quarter of the way through the season now, which is a decent yardstick if you ask me) and you’re not just excited at the shiny name on the back of his sweater, because if there’s anything your friends will kill you for, it’s excitement over shiny things.

The Saturday Slate

Your weekly guide to goalie sits and starts. If my “start” goalies record a win and a peripheral statistic of either 2.00 GAA or less, or .920 save % or higher, I take one point. If they record one of the two, I take a half-point. If my “sit” goalies take a loss and post either a 3.00 GAA or higher or a .900 save % or less, I take one point. If they take either one of the two, I take a half. For the year, I have 16.5 of a possible 28 points, recording at least a half-point in 20 of 28 games thus far. In the event of a starting goalie not playing the game, I will assume their backup’s stats.

Last week: I missed last week, but it figures that the week after I start doing the “last week” feature I lay my first egg, going a disturbing 0-fer on my picks, striking out on all 4 match-ups. Not even a half-point! Recovery starts now.

START

Jon Quick v. St. Louis: St. Louis continues to struggle and with a recent dry spell when it comes to scheduling, they should be ripe for the picking, playing only their second game in a week. While L.A. hasn’t done much to allay their recent struggles, I like this play.

Ray Emery v. Washington: It’s never a good idea to recommend a goalie who is slumping, and even worse form when it’s against one of the league’s top offensive squads. That said, AO is sitting this one out as part of his kneeing suspension and Emery will look for a bounce-back at Wachovia. Philly always plays Washington very close and I think Rayzor shows his form here.


SIT

Mason/Garon v. Colorado: Colorado, despite their struggles of late, are still averaging more than 3 goals per game, and have put up 5 twice in the last two weeks. Mason and Garon haven’t exactly lit the world on fire and have given up 6 to the Leafs and lost an 11-round shootout to Chicago in the last week, causing the home fans in Columbus to actually BOO the Jackets after the loss to the Buds. Bench both these guys until some sign of life appears.

Miikka Kiprusoff @ San Jose: Playing another one of my “reverse streaks” here, as Kipper has allowed only 2 goals in the last 3 games, including 2 shutouts during that same time. It’s bound to end sometime, and for a goalie as consistent as the Kipper, it’s hard to give him a start against one of the league’s offensive dynamos and the current hottest line in the league in the form of the Money Line. Bench Kipper and save yourself the trouble.